Deutsche Bank Not a Trend To Follow If you are Long

I had a call yesterday of bottom fisher whose hands have been getting burned. He asked me what I thought about Deutsche Bank AG. I told him very simply, from a trend following perspective it was in a long down turn. Other than that, I do not have any opinion. He was exuberant as he told me the bottom was in and it had jumped 14%. He had thought he was buying a bargain as we all like to do, however Cheap has been getting cheaper. He had gotten in around 25.

I tried to explain him the fundamentals of trend following. We have no idea where any market is going. We react…not predict…Leave that to CNBC. We look to let our profits run and cut our losses short.

He was doing non of the above…I did not give any advice rather…Trade with the trend…


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Bull Stock Market Highs 5/20/15 on the SP 2134.72 ?

After yesterday it might be fair to say we saw the Bull Stock Market Highs 5/20/15 on the SP 2134.72.
7/20/15 on the QQQ at 5231.94 also looks the highs for the current cycle. From a trend following standpoint I have been stating repeatedly the situation. My students have avoided a great deal of the recent blood bath. I read an article that Trillions of dollars have already been lost.

Yesterday Jim Rogers Warned

“The Market Knows It’s Over”

“We’re All Going To Suffer”

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Andreas Clenow Trend Following Top Traders Unplugged

I want to share this the site. I truly enjoy listening…

“Never accept the old-style, blackbox explanation – always understand what is going on.” – Andreas Clenow (Tweet)

In our continued conversation with Andreas Clenow, we discuss the research and work that goes into making his trading model, how he deals with risk and drawdowns, and how he explains his models to potential investors. In this episode, we will dive into how clear and explainable a trading model should be, and what questions you should ask firms before investing in them.
Thanks for listening and please welcome back Andreas Clenow.




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Trend Following the Stock Market Weekend Review $GLD $SPY $AMZN $FB

It was a very ugly session on Friday. Closed almost on the intraday lows. Volume was slightly higher than average. It might seem we are in the late stages of a Bull market or early stages of a Bear market. The “FANG” stocks are not holding up well and failing with breakout attempts. Some of the FANG stocks from a trend following standpoint ( breaking 50 Day Moving Averages show complete weakness). This is a tough market to be long. The question is will the recent support hold?

In the meantime GLD is moving up past the 200 day exponential moving average.

Learn how to trend follow via

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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If We are in a Bull Market Why Are These Stocks Dropping like Rocks $LKND $LGF

If We are in a Bull Market Why Are These Stocks Dropping like Rocks


Oh…I forgot that we should be buy and hold investors….

This is why we always need a trading plan….

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Will The Stock Market Crash -Trend Following Perspective

I had this question yesterday..Will The Stock Market Crash from a Trend Following Perspective?

I do not make predictions nor go on CNBC…My answer to the dismay of the caller was rather shocked. I told him I have no idea. That in order for one to be a successful Trend Follower, they need to check their opinions at the door and believe that anything can and will happen. I told him as a trend follower I use rules in which I try to keep my loses small and be available for opportunities.

I further explained my trading trend following stock market rules. I pointed out, that in 2011 when all thought the stock market would fail, the stock market took off to the upside. This can happen again. However before this happens the stock indexes need to surpass the 200 day moving averages and probably test the lows. I told him in my opinion, the current situation is risky from a long side. From a trend following perspective, one should either be out of their longs or if they have the knowledge, look from the short side.

Trend following is not just an indicator or watching CNBC. It takes years of education and emotional fortitude.

I am here to help….

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Wild Stock Market Session Trend Following

Yesterday was one wild stock market session yesterday. After opening stronger the major averages sold off to significant losses and it looked like it would be another negative day. HOWEVVVVERRRRR…the roller coaster started. For those you love roller coasters…have fun. I prefer to avoid drama and sit patiently in cash.

One can easily say…The reversal we had today is generally a good sign, but it is hard to get to excited. What is interesting is that we been hitting support. However I am still in cash…

You chose…Do you want to learn how to avoid the stock market roller coaster?


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Trend Following Stock Markets Suffer a Distribution Day

After a follow through day as we had on Friday one would have thought the market would be starting to rebound. However in my weekend review I thought at best there would be a retest…Maybe we are setting ourselves up for that.

From a trend following standpoint, all the major averages opened lower and ground down the rest of the session. They all finished at their intraday lows, a sign of weakness. The QQQ led the way down with a loss of 2.24% while the SPX declined 1.87%. Volume was higher across the board, showing that large institutional players were selling stocks today. Not a good sign for those looking for a rebound.

Our model still has us in cash. We want to be above key moving averages. Yet we are still way off these. Since this is the second day distribution after Friday’s action. This shows how difficult it is to make any progress in this market environment and is a good reason not to get to heavily exposed or simply just stay in cash. Build your watchlist…Learn and look at past stock market trend following winners.

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Willem Middelkoop Outlook for Gold $8000

Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodities Discovery Fund. In this video he discusses the history of monetary shifts and explores a scenario where the US dollar could be debunked as the global reserve currency. Willem discusses the possibility of gold being incorporated back into the monetary system, outlining the knock-on effects and the role of central banks in this scenario. Putting things into perspective…Middelkoop predicted the collapse of the real estate market in 2006. Not that many others did.

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Trend Following During Worse Quarter SP 500 Performance

I received an interesting email this morning showing how trend following the BTOP 50 did compared to the worse quarter Sp 500 performance. Firstly I want to point out the the SP 500 has completely out performed the BTOP 50 in recent years. Investing is never easy and what is easy is to loose money and quit.

Curious to hear thoughts and comments…


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