The Bible of Trend Following

Listening to Opinions When Trend Following

I just received an email telling me why this trader was so bullish. I am sure all of you have received emails that are bullish as well as bearish. The key to your success is to follow your own plan and do not listen to others. Build a trading plan. Accept the fact there will be trades that do not work and trades that do. The key is keeping losses small.

This trader tried to give me every reason he was bullish. Maybe he is right or maybe he isn’t however. I am myself and no one else is responsible for my trading success or failures.

I tried not to have an opinion either to be long or short the stock market. Try to take it day by day and read the market. On a positive level volume was higher across the board so it was an accumulation day on all the major averages. Again, I am concerned on the high number of distribution days ( institutional selling), age of the bull market, MACD divergences as well as some other issues….We are still above key moving averages also on the positive side. Until the market proves more concretely, I am still on the sidelines ( and willing to go long)…

If you need assistance in your trading, I offer one one one private mentoring by the hour.

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Large Negative Divergence MACD in SP 500 $SPY

A pictures worth a thousand words or in this case thousands of dollars. You do not want to see new highs and a negative divergence on the index. Combine this also with 5 distribution days. Not the most positive at this point.


If you would like to learn about MACD Divergences and how to better invest your money, I offer private one on one hourly mentoring.
Email me at

Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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Seeds of a Managed Futures Recovery

I was forwarded this article today regarding managed futures. It was produced by NewEdge.

If you are interested in managed futures worth a read…

Click here for the article

Past Performance is not indicative of future performance

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Learn TOP-5 secrets of Wall Street!

Great news for all USA traders! Whotrades, Inc. brokerage invites you to participate
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• the current status of the market
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• mid-term selection of shares
• sectors and shares that are most attractive for investment

The webinar will be interesting both for professional trader, who is looking to revise his/her strategies or discover new opportunities and specialist who has little experience but would like to improve trading skills and earn more money.
Don’t miss the main event of the summer! Join the webinar right now, seats are limited!

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Stock Market Rallies and Stock Market Declines $SPY $QQQ

Volume is a very important aspect that needs inspection during stock market rallies and stock market declines. If we just look at the recent stock market activity, we have stock market declines on large volume and stock market rallies on low volume. Just using common sense which is not so common, there is more conviction on the selling side than the buying side.

Take this as just one piece of the puzzle. Currently the stock market is above most key moving averages. However stock market declines on heavy volume needs to be noted. More so we have 5 distribution days on the SP and the Nasdaq.

Many stock market tops are characterized by groupings of these distribution days.

Caution is warranted. I am not a stock market bear nor bull. I simply read the market. If you would like to learn more and improve your trading I offer one on one private mentoring with hourly sessions…
Just email me

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Stocks Fall Hard – You Should Not be Surprised $SPY $QQQ

Stocks fell hard yesterday. However to those reading the market action with distribution days this should not have come as a surprise. Currently we have now 6 Distribution days. Distribution days are where there is greater selling by institutional investors. I have been mentioning this over the last several posts. The retail investor has been getting overly bullish and at the same time the professionals have been selling.

The news did not seem to help either of the shooting down of the passenger jet over Ukraine and the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza really got the selling going and all the major averages finished near the bottom of their intraday ranges. You do not want to see heavy volume and closing on the intraday lows.

Another negative is the Russell which is the broad index as well as the leading stocks got hit with an index of leaders off by 2.00%. Think about it…if leaders can not lead nor is there rotation…Possibly we are heading off to a potential correction.

This is not a scare message. I will go long the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors when the market is healthy. When the market is not healthy as determined by my moving averages and distribution days….CASH is wonderful. No stress…No anxiety…
If you would like to improve your trading I offer one on one private mentoring by the hour.
You can email me at

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Grains are Trending Down-Example of Trend Following

You can have up trends and down trends when trend following. In general…even though there is always never really a general, there is more profit on the long side. Usually trends on the up side are more orderly…Down trends are limited as they can only go to zero and in many cases more violent. In my commodity trading, I am long biased. Humbly I will say I missed the down trend in grains.

The down trend started back in May in Corn and Wheat, as short signals started to get triggered and actually the down trend accelerated over the past 3 weeks.


This is what you seek in a trend when you are trend following

Strong moves in which you have lower lows and lower highs.

Do not use this information to think to jump on the grains now. Anything can happen when we trade.

Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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Current Stock Market is a Very Difficult One to Be in $SPY $QQQ

There are always the buy and hold (pray) investors who seem to obvious to the internal breadth of the stock market. This current period even though we seem to be knocking new highs with ease, I personally feel the current stock market is a very difficult one to be in.

My rational is based on the weakness of the Russell which declined 1.01%. This is the broad market. This is not the big cap Nasdaq with weightings in some of the glory leaders. If the broad market is weak, this is not a positive sign. More so add in the fact that many of the leading stocks in the leading sectors have been failing in their breakouts. This is not a positive. Most concerning however is the high number of distribution days. More so the clustering of them. High distribution days signal institutional selling. These institutional sellers are hedge funds, mutual funds and pensions. These are the experienced investors, not your cocktail party friends who seem to make money in every stock. Take into consideration of the age of the bull market and the extent of its run ( One of the oldest and biggest). I am not a bear nor is this another bearish stock market article. I am just following the market on a day to day basis…

This is a very difficult market to try to operate in and until there is a clear trend in one direction or another having a large cash position is a good idea. This is my personal opinion. If you would like to learn how to better your trading, I offer one on one private mentoring and tutoring.
Contact me @

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The Hardest Thing About Trend Following is Following your Trading Rules

So many investors and traders think they can learn a trend following technique…or learn a trend following system or a trend following indicator and think they can start banking money. This is not reality….
Firstly trading is very tough. That is why only so few can be consistent successful trend followers. I teach traders one on one how to overcome the issue of over riding one’s trading rules….

Recent email exchange

Let me know your thoughts
Hello XXX…I wanted to know how you are feeling after selling yesterday…it is like Murphys law that the market is up today….this is why we need rules…and yes…this is very hard…and that is why I am here to assist you…

Hi Andy,
it was ok, I last $139, which I don’t care. With your approach I will lose much less then I was trading before. Today I bought QLD again, at 114.07 (open), 29 stocks.
My WellsFargo account did not have commissions, which allow me to buy and sell as much as I can.

Thanks, XXXXX

Hello XXX

My question was because it seemed you did not follow the plan…would like to understand…

His response
agree, did not follower plan

This is what makes trading so hard…changing ones trading plan…over riding the trading plan. The only way to become a successful trader is to follow the plan, accept the outcomes ahead of time, have hard stops, have risk management, accept the uncertainty, accept the fact that any one trade should not matter. It is all a numbers game.

If you need personal help with your trading, I can assist you in an on going mentoring program as well as hourly one on one private mentoring. You can email me at

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Dan Zanger Founder of interview

Worth watching Dan Zanger Founder of interview

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