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The Bible of Trend Following

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The Nasdaq Biotech Rally $QQQ $VRX $AGN $SPY

Has the stock market recovered? The SPY 500 has issued a buy signal yet the Nasdaq has not. The biotechs stocks have been big movers…

Watch to learn

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Leading Stocks – Strongest Stocks on a Relative Strength Basis $WYNN $URI $GLOG $ARRS $SPY $QQQ $THRM

Below are the strongest stocks based on a relative strength basis. I am not in the market. My goal is to be in the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors when the market is healthy. According to my models the market is still weak until proven otherwise. None of these are personal recommendations or suggestions. The goal is to educate in order how to find the strongest stocks…as these…and more importantly best invested in the stock market when the market is healthy.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.
This website contains references to hypothetical trading results This website contains references to hypothetical trading results.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS
** THE MATERIAL DISPLAYED ON THIS WEBSITE IS INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

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Nasdaq Snapback Rally? $QQQ $SPY $GLOG

Is the Nasdaq going back up or is this a snapback rally? The volume has been lacking which is not showing alot of conviction. Until further proof the sidelines are the place to be…

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100 Motivational Quotes That Will Inspire You to Be Successful- Huffington Post

100 Motivational Quotes That Will Inspire You To Be Successful:

1. If you want to achieve greatness stop asking for permission. ~Anonymous

2. Things work out best for those who make the best of how things work out. ~John Wooden

3. To live a creative life, we must lose our fear of being wrong. ~Anonymous

4. If you are not willing to risk the usual you will have to settle for the ordinary. ~Jim Rohn

5. Trust because you are willing to accept the risk, not because it’s safe or certain. ~Anonymous

6. Take up one idea. Make that one idea your life – think of it, dream of it, live on that idea. Let the brain, muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. This is the way to success. ~Swami Vivekananda

7. All our dreams can come true if we have the courage to pursue them. ~Walt Disney

8. Good things come to people who wait, but better things come to those who go out and get them. ~Anonymous

9. If you do what you always did, you will get what you always got. ~Anonymous

10. Success is walking from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm. ~Winston Churchill

11. Just when the caterpillar thought the world was ending, he turned into a butterfly. ~Proverb

12. Successful entrepreneurs are givers and not takers of positive energy. ~Anonymous

13. Whenever you see a successful person you only see the public glories, never the private sacrifices to reach them. ~Vaibhav Shah

14. Opportunities don’t happen, you create them. ~Chris Grosser

15. Try not to become a person of success, but rather try to become a person of value. ~Albert Einstein

16. Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

17. I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work. ~Thomas A. Edison

18. If you don’t value your time, neither will others. Stop giving away your time and talents- start charging for it. ~Kim Garst

19. A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him. ~David Brinkley

20. No one can make you feel inferior without your consent. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

21. The whole secret of a successful life is to find out what is one’s destiny to do, and then do it. ~Henry Ford

22. If you’re going through hell keep going. ~Winston Churchill

23. The ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones that do. ~Anonymous

24. Don’t raise your voice, improve your argument. ~Anonymous

25. What seems to us as bitter trials are often blessings in disguise.~ Oscar Wilde

26. The meaning of life is to find your gift. The purpose of life is to give it away. ~Anonymous

27. The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success. ~Bruce Feirstein

28. When you stop chasing the wrong things you give the right things a chance to catch you. ~Lolly Daskal

29. Don’t be afraid to give up the good to go for the great. ~John D. Rockefeller

30. No masterpiece was ever created by a lazy artist.~ Anonymous

31. Happiness is a butterfly, which when pursued, is always beyond your grasp, but which, if you will sit down quietly, may alight upon you. ~Nathaniel Hawthorne

32. If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough. ~Albert Einstein

33. Blessed are those who can give without remembering and take without forgetting. ~Anonymous

34. Do one thing every day that scares you. ~Anonymous

35. What’s the point of being alive if you don’t at least try to do something remarkable. ~Anonymous

36. Life is not about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself. ~Lolly Daskal

37. Nothing in the world is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. ~Anonymous

38. Knowledge is being aware of what you can do. Wisdom is knowing when not to do it. ~Anonymous

39. Your problem isn’t the problem. Your reaction is the problem. ~Anonymous

40. You can do anything, but not everything. ~Anonymous

41. Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower. ~Steve Jobs

42. There are two types of people who will tell you that you cannot make a difference in this world: those who are afraid to try and those who are afraid you will succeed. ~Ray Goforth

43. Thinking should become your capital asset, no matter whatever ups and downs you come across in your life. ~Dr. APJ Kalam

44. I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have. ~Thomas Jefferson

45. The starting point of all achievement is desire. ~Napolean Hill

46. Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day-in and day-out. ~Robert Collier

47. If you want to achieve excellence, you can get there today. As of this second, quit doing less-than-excellent work. ~Thomas J. Watson

48. All progress takes place outside the comfort zone. ~Michael John Bobak

49. You may only succeed if you desire succeeding; you may only fail if you do not mind failing. ~Philippos

50. Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear – not absense of fear. ~Mark Twain

51. Only put off until tomorrow what you are willing to die having left undone. ~Pablo Picasso

52. People often say that motivation doesn’t last. Well, neither does bathing – that’s why we recommend it daily. ~Zig Ziglar

53. We become what we think about most of the time, and that’s the strangest secret. ~Earl Nightingale

54. The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary. ~Vidal Sassoon

55. The best reason to start an organization is to make meaning; to create a product or service to make the world a better place. ~Guy Kawasaki

56. I find that when you have a real interest in life and a curious life, that sleep is not the most important thing. ~Martha Stewart

57. It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see. ~Anonymous

58. The road to success and the road to failure are almost exactly the same. ~Colin R. Davis

59. The function of leadership is to produce more leaders, not more followers. ~Ralph Nader

60. Success is liking yourself, liking what you do, and liking how you do it. ~Maya Angelou

61. As we look ahead into the next century, leaders will be those who empower others. ~Bill Gates

62. A real entrepreneur is somebody who has no safety net underneath them. ~Henry Kravis

63. The first step toward success is taken when you refuse to be a captive of the environment in which you first find yourself. ~Mark Caine

64. People who succeed have momentum. The more they succeed, the more they want to succeed, and the more they find a way to succeed. Similarly, when someone is failing, the tendency is to get on a downward spiral that can even become a self-fulfilling prophecy. ~Tony Robbins

65. When I dare to be powerful – to use my strength in the service of my vision, then it becomes less and less important whether I am afraid. ~Audre Lorde

66. Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. ~Mark Twain

67. The successful warrior is the average man, with laser-like focus. ~Bruce Lee

68. Take up one idea. Make that one idea your life — think of it, dream of it, live on that idea. Let the brain, muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. This is the way to success. ~Swami Vivekananda

69. Develop success from failures. Discouragement and failure are two of the surest stepping stones to success. ~Dale Carnegie

70. If you don’t design your own life plan, chances are you’ll fall into someone else’s plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much. ~ Jim Rohn

71. If you genuinely want something, don’t wait for it — teach yourself to be impatient. ~Gurbaksh Chahal

72. Don’t let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning. ~Robert Kiyosaki

73. If you want to make a permanent change, stop focusing on the size of your problems and start focusing on the size of you! ~T. Harv Eker

74. You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life. ~Steve Jobs

75. Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to doDon’t wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~Jim Rohn

76. The number one reason people fail in life is because they listen to their friends, family, and neighbors. ~Napoleon Hill

77. The reason most people never reach their goals is that they don’t define them, or ever seriously consider them as believable or achievable. Winners can tell you where they are going, what they plan to do along the way, and who will be sharing the adventure with them. ~Denis Watiley

78. In my experience, there is only one motivation, and that is desire. No reasons or principle contain it or stand against it. ~Jane Smiley

79. Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time. ~George Bernard Shaw

80. I don’t want to get to the end of my life and find that I lived just the length of it. I want to have lived the width of it as well. ~Diane Ackerman

81. You must expect great things of yourself before you can do them. ~Michael Jordan

82. Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going. ~Jim Ryun

83. People rarely succeed unless they have fun in what they are doing. ~Dale Carnegie

84. There is no chance, no destiny, no fate, that can hinder or control the firm resolve of a determined soul. ~Ella Wheeler Wilcox

85. Our greatest fear should not be of failure but of succeeding at things in life that don’t really matter. ~Francis Chan

86. You’ve got to get up every morning with determination if you’re going to go to bed with satisfaction. ~George Lorimer

87. To be successful you must accept all challenges that come your way. You can’t just accept the ones you like. ~Mike Gafka

88. Success is…knowing your purpose in life, growing to reach your maximum potential, and sowing seeds that benefit others. ~ John C. Maxwell

89. Be miserable. Or motivate yourself. Whatever has to be done, it’s always your choice. ~Wayne Dyer

90. To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also dream, not only plan, but also believe.~ Anatole France

91. Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no help at all. ~Dale Carnegie

92. You measure the size of the accomplishment by the obstacles you had to overcome to reach your goals. ~Booker T. Washington

93. Real difficulties can be overcome; it is only the imaginary ones that are unconquerable. ~Theodore N. Vail

94. It is better to fail in originality than to succeed in imitation. ~Herman Melville

95. Fortune sides with him who dares. ~Virgil

96. Little minds are tamed and subdued by misfortune; but great minds rise above it. ~Washington Irving

97. Failure is the condiment that gives success its flavor. ~Truman Capote

98. Don’t let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do. ~John R. Wooden

99. You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it. ~Margaret Thatcher

100. A man can be as great as he wants to be. If you believe in yourself and have the courage, the determination, the dedication, the competitive drive and if you are willing to sacrifice the little things in life and pay the price for the things that are worthwhile, it can be done. ~Vince Lombardi

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Stock Market is in a Correction yet Watching $GLOG and $UA

Watch List 4132014
UA –Under Armor
GLOG- Gas Log

• These are not trade recommendations. These are candidate trades. Do your own research, keep position sizes modest, and stay diversified.
• Also past performance is no indication of future stock trends.

Firstly I look at the general indices. We are in a correction. Both SPY and QQQ are on a sell. I use a simple group of indicators which are programmed into Metastock. They are not perfect and there will be whipsaws. However they will keep me out of the big draw downs.

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Under Armor
Virtually every sport enthusiasts is well aware of Under Armor. UA has been on and off the IBD50 list.
Currently UA is not of the current list. However from almost a Peter Lynch approach UA is on my watch list. I travel a great deal and through out my travel I work out. I live overseas and regardless if I am in Israel or the UK or Japan, I see Under Armor clothing. Combining the apparel aspect with new shoes lines I believe potentially UA could be like Nike. However with the market in a correction and potentially that UA needs to build a base. More so accumulation needs to be present and we are currently seeing complete distribution. UA is below the 50 Moving average another current negative.

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Gaslog
Contrary to UA GLOG is holding up well in the market correction. Surprisingly GLOG was up 2.53% on Friday even when the market sold off. Expectations are for earnings to double.

I live overseas in Israel and both Israel and Cyprus have discovered billions if not trillions of BTUs. Most natural gas is delivered via pipelines. However pipelines take a great deal of time to build. GLOG has a fleet of natural gas liquefied carriers. This could be a game changer of natural gas delivery. Add in the current political situation between Russia and Western Europe. Russia has been threatening to cut or limit gas deliveries to Western Europe. Cyprus is a member of the EU and can solve the geopolitical threats.

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In addition to the art of chart reading I use a trend following approach. I exited my GLOG trade when went into a correction.

Andrew Abraham

AbrahamCTA.com

US +1 954 903 0638
Tel Intl +972 54 319 4101

The Bible of Compounding Money- The Complete Guide to Investing with World Class Money Manger

The Bible of Trend Following – How Professional Traders Compound Money & Manage the Risks.

Available on Kindle

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Nasdaq Plunges On Large Volume #QQQ #SPY

I really thought after Thursdays sell off we would see somewhat of a bounce potentially with Yellen or Draghi with one of their encouraging speeches. However the markets continued to plunge. Time will tell if this is the beginning a correction, bear market or just a small retracement in the greater move of an extended old bull market. I built on Metastock a market timing formula very simplistic in nature. It is not perfect as nothing in trading is. There will be some whip saws, however for the big moves one stands the potential to stay on the right side of the market.

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Nasdaq Selloff How Bad Can it Really Get $QQQ $SPY $GLOG $UA $ALGN $JAZZ

I had a conversation with a Value Hedge fund yesterday. I thought to share their thoughts. They thought I was being too paranoid regarding the sell off. They felt this gave them an opportunity to buy more shares cheaply. We agreed to disagree.

My point is simply that the market can easily sell off hard from here without further warning…as well as can simply rebound as it has done so many times. No one knows the futures and prudence is the key.

In the video I present an indicator from Metastock which will keep you on the right side of the market.

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Dead Cat Bounce -Fed Cat Bounce $SPY $QQQ

Ironically I had a conversation with a very large hedge fund manager before the Fed Cat bounce, that I would not be surprised if either Janet Yellen or Draghi will jaw bone the stock market and Shazam….it happened. It was so obvious. What more is obvious is how hard this market is to trade. Probably the only people who should be active in this volatility are day traders.

The market opened today with a continuation of yesterday’s rally ( dead cat bounce). The Fed minutes came out at and said in effect that the Fed’s employment level for tightening had been dropped. The major averages took off to the upside with the $QQQ leading the way with a gain of 1.72% while the $SPY was up 1.02%. The $SPY has now bounced off it’s 50 dma and the $QQQ is approaching this important moving average.

Well that sounds like great news and the bull market is going to continue ( which it surely might. Both major averages closed at their highs of the day, but volume was lower across the board. This shows that there was little buying pressure by large players.

The most beaten down leaders bounced today. This seems like a dead cat bounce or better said…Fed Cat Bounce!

Today’s action shows how difficult it is to operate in the current environment.

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Investment Manager Disappointments

I am writing this very introspectively. As I have been trend following and trading my own account since 1994. I had always felt that other hedge fund managers or CTAs were somewhat better. I had a very disappointing update from an investment manager my family has been with since 2009. He was down 16.9% in one month. This is unbelievable. He has been in the markets since 1980s. This is a complete lack of risk management!

What does this teach me? To trust myself and my trading abilities. I never had such a draw down. There were years I out performed as well as years I under performed. However I have come to the conclusion….

I trust myself more than any other Hedge fund manager or CTA. Yes, I will always have trades that do not work and long periods of draw downs which seem never to end however I trust myself. The point of this rambling is that you should also develop a trading plan and trust yourself. There is no magical system or indicator out there. It is all about understanding yourself. Your risk tolerances, time frames and expectations. You must have patience and discipline.

It can be accomplished. You can do this with the right mindset.

I take what occurred as a blessing. I trust in my creator and the GD given talents he has given me. I am far from perfect however I try to be aware of risk and how detrimental the markets can be.

Ironically today I had a conversation with a fund of fund manager with approx $1 billion under management. We also discussed the concept of trusting ones self and having manager disappoint. He was disappointed by the performance of managers in the 2007-2008 period. His firm is actively starting to trade tactical concepts via ETFs rather specific Hedge Fund managers.

More so I had one of my one on one mentoring sessions and was told twice this week that the trader wanted to get to a level he trusted himself for his families finances.

Trading is never easy. Always full of challenges. However with a thought out trading plan you can get to a level of confidence of trusting yourself as a pose to so called experts.

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Best Book on Trading – The Bible of Trend Following

Thought to share this nice comment from a reader. The Trend Following Bible was written for my children in order they will learn to be independent.

Dear Andrew,

Thank you for writing Trend Following Bible and sharing your wisdom.

It is indeed one of the best books on trading I have read so far in my 10 years as a trader.

Best regards
KS
trend following

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